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Oil futures traded steady ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting, which could bring some kind of agreement on output cuts in 2024. Gold futures finished higher as the dollar index slipped against a basket of currencies on Friday. Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark for the euro area, rose 3 basis points to a 1-1/2-week high. Oil prices were steady after tumbling more than 1% on concerns over a delayed OPEC+ meeting. ($1 = 7.2111 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Chris Prentice in New York, Naomi Rovnick in London and Stella Qiu in Sydney.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Germany's DAX, Peter Doherty, Arbuthnot Latham, Robert Holzmann, Pierre Wunsch, Chris Prentice, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Toby Chopra, Susan Fenton, Mark Potter, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Hamas, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, China's CSI, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, OPEC, Germany, Israel, London, Belgian, Asia, New York, Sydney

Photographers take photos near a large screen showing stock prices at the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) after market opens in Tokyo, Japan October 2, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/SYDNEY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Global shares drifted on Friday in the absence of guidance from Wall Street, which was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday the previous day, but they were still on course for their best month since November 2020. An indecisive Asia session extended to Europe, with the Stoxx 600 share index (.STOXX) trading flat. Despite optimism having surged across global markets this month, there may also be a lull ahead as investors position their portfolios for 2024, some analysts said. Minutes from the latest Fed policy meeting signalled there would not be more hikes unless progress against taming inflation faltered.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Peter Doherty, Arbuthnot Latham, Shane Oliver, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes, Robert Birsel, Toby Chopra, Susan Fenton Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Wall, Nasdaq, Hamas, AMP, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, China's CSI, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, Europe, Israel, U.S, London, OPEC

☆ Stocks stall, yields climb on "higher for longer" rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. stock futures , , were slightly firmer ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, signalling a pause after sharp losses on Thursday amid uncertainty over interest rates going into 2024. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a 16-year high of 4.508%, later trading at 4.48%, while 30-year yields hit their highest in a dozen years. The Fed revised downwards its unemployment rate forecast for next year, and if the U.S. economic data continued to improve, it would put "upside risk" on interest rates, making the need for a soft landing all the greater, Osman added. Ten-year Japanese government bond futures rallied though cash yields were little changed and near decade highs at 0.745%. Gold firmed 0.3% to $1,925 an ounce despite pressure from the stronger dollar and bond yields.

Persons: what's, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Osman, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Susan Collins, Lisa Cook, Craig Ebert, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann, Kim Coghill, Rashmi Organizations: Bank of Japan, Global, Nasdaq, Treasury, ING, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Investors, Bank of England, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Europe, U.S, Asia, Japan, China, Sweden, Norway, BNZ, Wellington

☆ Bond rout keeps stocks under water, China woes give dollar a lift
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Crude oil was set to snap a seven-week winning streak as China's slowing economic growth clouded the picture for demand. Jason Da Silva, director, global investment strategy at Arbuthnot Latham, said stock markets were paying the price for bond yields soaring as economic data from the United States smash expectations, despite all the rate hikes so far. Euro zone government bond yields also eased on Friday as concerns about the global economy nudged investors into safe-haven government bonds and further signs emerged that euro zone inflation has peaked. The U.S. dollar recovered from an earlier dip and was standing tall near a two-month top at 103.42 against its major peers. Brent crude futures eased 0.5% to $83.67 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were off 0.4% at $79.99.

Persons: Toby Melville, bitcoin, Thursday's, Jason Da Silva, Arbuthnot Latham, Da Silva, Jerome Powell, HSI, China Evergrande, Toby Chopra, Mark Potter Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Jackson, Global, Nasdaq, ING, Treasury, Federal Reserve, CHINA SHADOW, HK, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, Japan, U.S, China, United States, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, CHINA, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Beijing, Bank of Japan

Yet a sharp drawdown in the excess savings created by COVID-19 could be a curve ball that slams into bullish sentiment. U.S. excess savings have fallen to around $500 billion from around $2.1 trillion in August 2021, the San Francisco Federal Reserve estimates. In Europe, Deutsche Bank reckons excess savings in Sweden, struggling to contain a property slump, have dwindled. Reuters GraphicsRUNNING OUTDefinitions for excess savings differ, but economists generally agree that this means savings that went beyond trend levels during the pandemic. Cardano chief economist Shweta Singh said U.S. pandemic excess savings are likely to be depleted by year-end.

Persons: Rachel Adams, Janus Henderson, Oliver Blackbourn, Shweta Singh, Guy Miller, Jamie Dimon, Ben, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Janus Henderson's Blackbourn, U.S . Russell, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Blackbourn, Zurich's Miller, Simon Bell, Guilluame Paillat, Paillat, Naomi Rovnick, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Insurance Group, Ryanair, JPMorgan, Unilever, U.S ., London's, Bank of, Aviva, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, China, Europe, U.S, Sweden, United States, downturns, Australia

☆ Wall Street on ice ahead of big tech earnings, UK shines
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Tech stocks have been boosted by exuberance about artificial intelligence as well as hopes the Federal Reserve will soon end the aggressive interest rate rises that bludgeoned valuations of more speculative businesses in 2022. Owning big tech is also the "most crowded" trade in global markets, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned in a note to clients this week. This was just the latest downside surprise on prices for a major economy after more than 18 months of central banks cranking interest rates higher. Sterling lost 0.96% to trade at $1.291 as market bets that the Bank of England would raise interest rates as high as 6%, from the current 5%, faded out. London's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) added 1.6% and the domestically focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) rose 3.2%, on track for its best daily performance since February 2.

Persons: Sterling, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Stuart Kaiser, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, BoE, Samuel Tombs, Kenneth Broux, Germany's, Tom Westbrook, Bernadette Baum, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: Stock, Wall, Tesla, Netflix, Nasdaq, Tech, Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Bank of England, Macroeconomics, Sterling, . Federal, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: London, Sydney

☆ Tamer U.S. inflation lifts global stocks to new 2023 high, dollar slides
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Interest rate futures showed markets have fully priced in another rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) later this month, but expectations of any further increases have faded. The softer dollar helped gold prices advance to near one-month highs, while oil prices hovered above $80 a barrel. The MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was up 0.5% at 691 points, hitting a new high for the year. It is up 13.5% so far in 2023, though still not wiping out all of the near 20% loss in 2022. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $80.27 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were slightly firmer at $75.80.

Persons: Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Osman, Stocks, Premier Li Qiang, Bonds, Huw Jones, Stella Qiu, Lincoln, Kim Coghill, William Maclean, Chizu Organizations: PPI, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Market, Arbuthnot Latham & Co, Japan's Nikkei, Premier, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Asia, Europe, U.S, CHINA, China, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong

☆ Dow Futures, Bank Stock Rise: Live Updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures edged higher as investors awaited data on inflation and economic growth and digested comments by central-bank chiefs. Meanwhile, bank stocks rose in premarket trading Thursday after the Fed said the biggest U.S. lenders remained healthy . Stock futures were up. The yield on the 10-year bund advanced to 2.357% ahead of German inflation data due at 8 a.m. U.S. bank stocks climbed premarket.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, ”, Jason Da Silva, Arbuthnot Latham Organizations: European Central Bank’s, Bank of England Gov, Fed, U.S, Stock, Futures, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, bund, Bank of New York Mellon, Bank of America, UniCredit, Nikkei Locations: European, Spain, U.S, China, Europe

SINGAPORE, April 26 (Reuters) - Global stock markets moved in opposite directions on Wednesday, as European investors responded to strain in the U.S. banking sector but Wall Street futures rose on bullish updates from Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O). MSCI's broad index of global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) was steady, as Asian markets outside of Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) ticked higher in line with rising Wall Street futures. Microsoft's Frankfurt-listed shares rose 7.4% after its quarterly results, issued after the U.S. stock market closed on Tuesday, beat analysts' forecasts. A $70 billion share buyback announced by Google parent Alphabet also looked set to insulate the mood on Wall Street from banking sector troubles. This has dented confidence towards loan-dependent sectors such as real estate, and raised questions over how global banks will deal with defaults.

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Banking sector turmoil has not dented demand for equities, with MSCI's world stock index up 7% so far this year. But under the surface, bad omens for world stocks are building. Central bank surveys show U.S. and European banks are already tightening lending standards, historically a predictor of dismal stock market performance. Credit tightening predicts poor stock market returns2/ MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWNRecessions starting in the United States tend to flow to the rest of the world and consequently global stocks. Seven mega-cap tech stocks were responsible for 92% of the S&P 500's first-quarter rise, Citi notes.

[1/2] The Credit Suisse logo is displayed on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 16, 2023. Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders get nothing under the UBS merger deal. A WisdomTree exchange traded fund that tracks a broad index of bank AT1s, has dropped 11% in the past fortnight. Credit Suisse AT1s made up less than 3% of the fund just before the Swiss bank's rescue, the asset manager disclosed. Deutsche Bank AT1 debt is trading at 74 cents on the dollar, off last week's lows around 67 cents but still below levels seen before the Credit Suisse writedown, Tradeweb data shows.

But after a two-week storm which had analysts and investors rushing to rework their spreadsheets, the outlook is clouded. And the ructions have left the gap between the ratios of European and U.S. banks at its narrowest since September 2017. Reflecting concerns over the stability of the sector, bank shares are set for an almost 15% monthly drop in March, after five consecutive months of gains. European bank earnings growth expectations'UNLIKELY TO BUY'Other investors see pressure on European bank earnings as they anticipate the euro zone economy will slow down. Also in the calculation mix is the ECB's campaign to raise interest rates to tackle rising inflation, which had previously been a boon for euro zone lenders.

☆ World stocks gyrate as bank contagion fears bite
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Koh Gui Qing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The growing sense of unease about the global banking system is heightening volatility in stock markets around the world," said Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, a financial advisor. The failure of U.S. regional banks Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) this month triggered fears of a banking contagion and prompted U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday to pledge action to safeguard bank deposits. JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N) dropped 1.52%, the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) was down 0.33%, while the KBW regional bank index (.KRX) climbed 2.92%. "I don't expect this volatility (in bank stocks) to subside anytime soon," said Peter Doherty, head of investment research at private bank Arbuthnot Latham in London. Doherty said issues of "contagion risk within the U.S. banking sector" were undoubtedly weighing on appetite for bank stocks elsewhere.

Ahead of crucial U.S. jobs data on Friday, MSCI's broad index of global stocks (.MIWO00000PUS) fell 0.3%. This view has clashed with market repricing of interest rate expectations and bond market signals that aggressive monetary tightening raises recession risks. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. U.S. Treasury yields continued an ascent on Wednesday, with the two-year yield, which tracks interest rate expectations, briefly touching 5.08% -- its highest level since 2007. After a series of jumbo hikes last year, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last month.

☆ Nvidia cheer ripples through chips as investors assess Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, January 24, 2023. The MSCI all country share index (.MIWD00000PUS) was slightly firmer, adding to the year's 4.5% advance, after falling nearly 20% in 2022. The yield on 10-year Treasury was slightly firmer at 3.9254%. The Australian and New Zealand dollar were both slightly firmer against the dollar. Fed officials Mary Daly and Raphael Bostic are also due to make appearances later on Thursday.

☆ Stocks sag, bond yields firm as yen sinks further
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The strong dollar continued to loom over currency markets, with the yen sinking to a 32-year low against the greenback. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched a 14-year high, while 2-year German government bond yields rose to their highest since December 2008. But earnings are likely to fall next year which, along with anticipated interest rate hikes in the United States and elsewhere, are already largely priced into markets, Osman said. China's stock market (.SSEC) fell while Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) hit levels last seen during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The rise in the dollar and yields pushed gold lower, with prices lingering at a three-week trough on Thursday.

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